Jose notes

* European buyers not keen to take full 2012 deliveries - tradeBy Polly Yam and Melanie BurtonHONG KONG/LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Codelco is likely to reduce its 2012 physical copper premiums for Chinese buyers by at most 5 percent, a smaller cut than it gave European clients as demand in the world’s biggest consumer of the metal is expected to remain strong, traders said on Friday.Earlier this month, trading sources said Codelco, the world’s top copper producer, had offered yearly premiums of $90 a tonne over the cash London Metal Exchange copper prices to European buyers for 2012, a 9 percent cut from this year, as the spectre of recession looms over the region’s economy.By 2012, however, traders and end-users expected China’s economy to continue growing, fuelling demand for the industrial metal. Weaker global demand is also likely to reduce copper prices, which would further boost Chinese consumption.They saw the Chilean firm offering premiums of between $110 and $115 for its shipments to China, which would be at most a 5 percent cut from this year.Chinese buyers have agreed to pay yearly premiums of $115 to Codelco for 2011 shipments, a gain of 35 percent from 2010.”Some Chinese buyers who got 3,000 tonnes a month or 10,000 tonnes a month this year are seeking to book 10,000 tonnes a month or 20,000 tonne a month next year because they expect prices to fall,” said a trader at an international firm who declined to be identified.”With such demand, we don’t expect Codelco would give a big cut to the Chinese.”Chinese buyers are expected to hold talks with Codelco in November on the 2012 premiums. Traders said all the signs so far pointed to robust demand, decreasing the likelihood of any significant reduction.Chinese buyers need to rebuild stocks next year after those in bonded warehouses in Shanghai fell to about 200,000 tonnes currently, from over 700,000 tonnes in April, a trader said.Beijing’s policy of tightening credit to local companies is expected to keep up demand from investors who import copper for reselling in the domestic market as a way to generate cash, a client of Codelco in China added.”The picture in China is different from Europe. Tight credits in China is expected to stay for a while,” he said.International Copper Study Group expects world apparent refined copper usage in 2012 to grow by 3.6 percent, mainly supported by a growth of 6 percent in China as the rest of the world is expected to grow by only 2 percent.China’s copper consumption may rise to 7.8-7.9 million tonnes in 2012 from 7.38 million tonnes expected this year, according to state-backed research firm Antaike.In September, China imported 380,526 tonnes of anode, refined copper, alloy and semi-finished copper products, the highest level since May 2010 and a gain of 3.3 percent from September 2010, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Thursday.JAPANESE SUPPLYAnother factor that may discourage Codelco from deepening its premium cuts to China is the flat rate $100 premium offered by Japan’s top copper smelter, Pan Pacific Copper, for 2012.”A flat premium (for 2012 shipments) is reasonable for Japanese copper because buyers’ financing costs are lower than shipments from Chile,” said a purchasing manager for a large copper fabricating plant which buys from Japanese smelters, but not Codelco.Codelco, however, risked losing customers if it set the premium at $115, while prices are expected to fall in the next year, traders said.”If they’re considering trying at $115 they’re going to walk away empty handed. At the moment, spot premiums are said to be $150, but $130-140 is where business is being done. The trouble is, seven months of the year, the premiums have been flat,” a London-based physical trader said.”The Chinese guys are the same as the European guys, they’ll be holding off to see how the economic situation plays out and end up looking to get a lot on the spot market,” he said.Traders said some European customers were not keen to take full deliveries under their contracts with Codelco in 2012 because of worries over weak demand. They said European buyers considered the $90 premium expensive, compared to the current levels of between $45 and $50.”So the situation is sit and wait for a while. Probably the first deals will start to conclude during second week of November,” a Chilean merchant said, referring to the European buyers.

* Stiff resistance on charts seen ahead for HSI* Mainland property surge, Evergrande lead gains* Signs of bearish trend bottoming out in ShanghaiBy Clement TanSHANGHAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares finished stronger for a sixth-straight session on Thursday, led by mainland property developers on optimism they would benefit from measures that Beijing announced on Wednesday to expand financing support for small businesses.Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd surged 16.5 percent after it said its property sales in September jumped 79.4 percent from a year earlier, becoming the latest in a slew of Chinese developers to report strong growth in 2011 contract sales despite Beijing’s efforts to cool the property market.But not every one was so upbeat on property.Du Jinsong, Credit Suisse’s property analyst, thinks the market may have misread Beijing’s Wednesday move. On the overall Chinese property sector, the market’s view is “too optimistic, with more downside risks ahead,” he said.On Tuesday, Credit Suisse issued a report co-authored by Du which warned that an expected property price decline in China will trigger a book value write-down for listed developers, in turn leading to falls in their share-prices.Full data was not available at market close on Thursday, but short-selling has stayed consistently above 10 percent for mainland property names this week despite gains, suggesting some investors remain bearish.The Hang Seng Index closed up 2.3 percent at 18,757.8 points. It has gained more than 15 percent since hitting a 29-month low on Oct. 4. The China Enterprises Index outperformed on Thursday, jumping 3.7 percent.Mainland property developers played a big part in Thursday’s gains, with China Resources Land , which lost more than 33 percent in September, surging 12 percent, making it the second-top percentage gainer among Hang Seng components.Fears of a hard landing for the Chinese economy have hit mainland property and financial stocks hardest as longer-term investors liquidated positions and as short-selling spiked. Evergrande lost almost half of its market capitalisation in September alone.Thursday’s gains brought the Hang Seng Index to the top of a downside gap that opened up between the low of Sept. 21, at 18,698.9, and the high on Sept 22, at 18,296.8, one of several that opened up after losses topped 14 percent last month, pointing to formidable resistance ahead.Near-term resistance is next seen at the May 2010 low at about 18,971 and the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the benchmark rise from 2008 lows to its cyclical peak in 2010, at about 19,557.MATERIALS SUPPORT SHANGHAI GAINSThe Shanghai Composite Index extended its two-day winning streak, closing up 0.8 percent at 2,438.8. Materials led gains as funds trickled back into the market, pushing A-share turnover to its second-highest since Aug. 26.There were suggestions in the market that the high turnover and heavy interest in a highly growth-sensitive sector such as materials stemmed from some investors anticipating a loosening of monetary policy after more financing support were announced late on Wednesday.With the Shanghai benchmark’s 3 percent climb on Wednesday entirely enveloping Tuesday’s uptick on the charts in a down trend and in strong volume, there are strong suggestions that bearishness could be bottoming out on the Shanghai benchmark.On Thursday, Anhui Conch Cement Co Ltd rose 5.8 percent, while Aluminium Corp of China Ltd (Chalco) and Baoshan Iron & Steel Co Ltd gained 1.3 and 1.1 percent respectively.Anhui Conch lost more than 22.5 percent in September, its worst month since the 2008 financial crisis, compared with an 8 percent decline on the Shanghai Composite Index.Funds have been gradually returning to mainland markets, taking the cue from Central Huijin, the domestic investment arm of the country’s sovereign wealth fund, which was reported on Monday to be raising its stakes in the “Big Four” Chinese banks over the next 12 months.Several analysts said investors saw Huijin’s move not only as an affirmation of the value of banking stocks but also a boost to sentiment, showing the government would provide hefty support to the market.

* Muammar Gaddafi and son Saif still on the run (Adds Tripoli celebrations, another NTC quote)By Ahmed Seif and Barry MaloneTRIPOLI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Muammar Gaddafi’s son Mo’tassim was captured in Sirte on Wednesday while trying to escape the town, the head of the Tripoli Revolutionary Council said.”He was arrested today in Sirte,” Colonel Abdullah Naker told Reuters.He was taken to Benghazi where he was questioned, other ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) sources based in Sirte and Benghazi said. They said he had been caught as he tried to leave Sirte in a car with a family.”I can confirm there is an important figure who was arrested and is being transferred to Benghazi,” Mohammed Bouker of the National Working Group, an NTC committee, told Reuters.”The name will be announced tomorrow for security reasons.”NTC sources had earlier told Reuters that Mo’tassim, formerly Libya’s national security adviser, had been captured on Tuesday. He is so far the only member of Gaddafi’s immediate family to be captured by the NTC forces who led the rebellion.Celebratory bursts of machinegun fire and fireworks lit up the skies over the capital Tripoli as reports of Mo’tassim’s arrest circulated.Hundreds of people gathered in the old city area, singing, waving Libya’s new flag and shouting, “God is greatest.”Ships sounded their whistles in the city’s harbour and car drivers honked their horns, many with passengers hanging from the windows shouting at passersby.”A BAD DREAM”“Now we have one Gaddafi,” shouted Mohammed, a 23-year-old engineer, who, despite it being banned in Libya, swigged from a bottle of alcohol with three friends. “Soon we will have the old man Gaddafi and all the Gaddafis.”“But fair trial, fair trial,” said his friends.One man celebrated with a small girl on his shoulders, as men nearby unleashed volleys of gunfire into the air, sending some fleeing into doorways to avoid falling bullets. Local reports said several people injured by the celebratory gunfire were taken to hospital.”Look at this child,” the man told Reuters in English. “For her there will be no memory of Gaddafi. He will be an old dream, just a bad dream. That is all.”NTC military sources said Mo’tassim was being held in the Boatneh military camp in Benghazi and that he was “exhausted” but uninjured.Another senior NTC military official told Reuters that Gaddafi’s son had cropped short his usually longer hair in an attempt to disguise himself.Muammar Gaddafi, Libya’s ousted leader of 42 years, and his most politically prominent son, Saif al-Islam, have been on the run since the fall of Tripoli on Aug. 23.Gaddafi’s daughter Aisha, her brothers Hannibal and Mohammed, their mother Safi and several other family members fled to Algeria in August and have been there since. Another son, Saadi, is in Niger.Most of Sirte, Gaddafi’s hometown, has been captured by fighters loyal to the NTC in recent days after weeks of siege.Interim government officials had said they believed Mo’tassim was hiding in the city’s hospital.

* Muammar Gaddafi and son Saif still on the run (Adds Tripoli celebrations, another NTC quote)By Ahmed Seif and Barry MaloneTRIPOLI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Muammar Gaddafi’s son Mo’tassim was captured in Sirte on Wednesday while trying to escape the town, the head of the Tripoli Revolutionary Council said.”He was arrested today in Sirte,” Colonel Abdullah Naker told Reuters.He was taken to Benghazi where he was questioned, other ruling National Transitional Council (NTC) sources based in Sirte and Benghazi said. They said he had been caught as he tried to leave Sirte in a car with a family.”I can confirm there is an important figure who was arrested and is being transferred to Benghazi,” Mohammed Bouker of the National Working Group, an NTC committee, told Reuters.”The name will be announced tomorrow for security reasons.”NTC sources had earlier told Reuters that Mo’tassim, formerly Libya’s national security adviser, had been captured on Tuesday. He is so far the only member of Gaddafi’s immediate family to be captured by the NTC forces who led the rebellion.Celebratory bursts of machinegun fire and fireworks lit up the skies over the capital Tripoli as reports of Mo’tassim’s arrest circulated.Hundreds of people gathered in the old city area, singing, waving Libya’s new flag and shouting, “God is greatest.”Ships sounded their whistles in the city’s harbour and car drivers honked their horns, many with passengers hanging from the windows shouting at passersby.”A BAD DREAM”“Now we have one Gaddafi,” shouted Mohammed, a 23-year-old engineer, who, despite it being banned in Libya, swigged from a bottle of alcohol with three friends. “Soon we will have the old man Gaddafi and all the Gaddafis.”“But fair trial, fair trial,” said his friends.One man celebrated with a small girl on his shoulders, as men nearby unleashed volleys of gunfire into the air, sending some fleeing into doorways to avoid falling bullets. Local reports said several people injured by the celebratory gunfire were taken to hospital.”Look at this child,” the man told Reuters in English. “For her there will be no memory of Gaddafi. He will be an old dream, just a bad dream. That is all.”NTC military sources said Mo’tassim was being held in the Boatneh military camp in Benghazi and that he was “exhausted” but uninjured.Another senior NTC military official told Reuters that Gaddafi’s son had cropped short his usually longer hair in an attempt to disguise himself.Muammar Gaddafi, Libya’s ousted leader of 42 years, and his most politically prominent son, Saif al-Islam, have been on the run since the fall of Tripoli on Aug. 23.Gaddafi’s daughter Aisha, her brothers Hannibal and Mohammed, their mother Safi and several other family members fled to Algeria in August and have been there since. Another son, Saadi, is in Niger.Most of Sirte, Gaddafi’s hometown, has been captured by fighters loyal to the NTC in recent days after weeks of siege.Interim government officials had said they believed Mo’tassim was hiding in the city’s hospital.

* AEA Investors, a U.S.-based private equity group, has tabled an offer for Asco Group, the fast-growing oil and gas logistics business, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.